Last Updated :2025/12/02

black swan fallacy

Noun
Japanese Meaning
過去の経験に基づき、反証となる証拠を無視することで、特定の事象の可能性を評価しなくなる論理的誤謬
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過去に起こらなかったという理由で稀な大災害を軽視することは、過去の経験に基づいて矛盾する証拠を無視し可能性を切り捨てる誤り、すなわちブラック・スワンの誤謬であり、社会を無防備に陥らせることがある。

plural

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The logical error of discounting the possibility of something in which the arguer ignores contradictory evidence on the basis of past experience.

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black swan fallacy

Dismissing rare catastrophes because they haven't happened before is a black swan fallacy that can leave societies unprepared.

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Dismissing rare catastrophes because they haven't happened before is a black swan fallacy that can leave societies unprepared.

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