Last Updated：2025/12/02

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The logical error of discounting the possibility of something in which the arguer ignores contradictory evidence on the basis of past experience.

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black swan fallacy

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Source Word

black swan fallacy

Noun

Japanese Meaning

過去の経験に基づき、反証となる証拠を無視することで、特定の事象の可能性を評価しなくなる論理的誤謬

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Dismissing rare catastrophes because they haven't happened before is a black swan fallacy that can leave societies unprepared.

Google Translation / DeepL Translation

過去に起こらなかったという理由で稀な大災害を軽視することは、過去の経験に基づいて矛盾する証拠を無視し可能性を切り捨てる誤り、すなわちブラック・スワンの誤謬であり、社会を無防備に陥らせることがある。

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The black swan fallacy holds that if all you have ever observed in your field research are white swans, you might be tempted to conclude 'All swans are white'. However, a black swan was discovered in Australia. Therefore, all it takes is one black swan to falsify the general statement about the universality of white swans.

Google Translation / DeepL Translation

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black swan fallacies

（ plural ）

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black swan fallacy

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black swan fallacy

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