Last Updated：2025/11/24

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A common error in logical reasoning where an effect is attributed to an incorrect cause because the basic statistical ratios have not been taken into account.

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base rate fallacy

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Source Word

base rate fallacy

Noun

Japanese Meaning

基本率の誤謬：基本的な統計的比率（基本率）を無視した結果、誤った原因に効果を帰するという論理的な誤謬

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The detective warned the jury that the base rate fallacy could lead them to overestimate the defendant's guilt because rare events were being treated as decisive evidence.

Google Translation / DeepL Translation

その刑事は陪審員に、ベースレート無視がまれな出来事を決定的な証拠として扱わせ、被告人の有罪を過大評価させる可能性があると警告した。

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base rate fallacies

（ plural ）

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base rate fallacy

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