Last Updated :2025/12/05

expectations hypothesis

Noun
Japanese Meaning
経済学における仮説で、長期金利は現在および将来の短期金利の期待値によってのみ決定されるとする考え方。すなわち、短期債を順次投資して得られる最終的な富の期待値が、長期債への投資から得られる最終的な富と等しくなることを意味する。
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長期金利が現在および将来の予想短期金利のみによって決まるという仮説は、10年債の利回りが1年債を10年間ロールオーバーした複利収益と等しいはずだと示唆している。

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(economics) The proposition that a long-term interest rate is determined purely by current and future expected short-term rates, so that the expected final value of wealth from investing in a sequence of short-term bonds equals the final value of wealth from investing in long-term bonds.

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expectations hypothesis

Because of the expectations hypothesis, many economists argue that the yield on a ten-year bond should equal the compounded returns from rolling over one-year bonds for ten years.

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Because of the expectations hypothesis, many economists argue that the yield on a ten-year bond should equal the compounded returns from rolling over one-year bonds for ten years.

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