Last Updated：2025/12/31
Sentence
We
raise
our
estimate
of
the
likelihood
of
Greek
EA
exit
(‘Grexit’)
to
50%
over
the
next
18
months,
from
25-30%
previously.
This
is
mostly
because
we
consider
the
willingness
of
EA
creditors
to
continue
providing
further
support
to
Greece
despite
Greek
non-compliance
with
programme
conditionality
to
have
fallen
substantially.
Quizzes for review
We raise our estimate of the likelihood of Greek EA exit (‘Grexit’) to 50% over the next 18 months, from 25-30% previously. This is mostly because we consider the willingness of EA creditors to continue providing further support to Greece despite Greek non-compliance with programme conditionality to have fallen substantially.
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