lighting

The dawn of the oil age was fairly recent. Although the stuff was used to waterproof boats in the Middle East 6,000 years ago, extracting it in earnest began only in 1859 after an oil strike in Pennsylvania.[…]It was used to make kerosene, the main fuel for artificial lighting after overfishing led to a shortage of whale blubber. Other liquids produced in the refining process, too unstable or smoky for lamplight, were burned or dumped.

We've observed plenty of strikings followed by lightings, so even if we should not say that the strikings cause the lightings, isn't it at least reasonable to predict, and to believe, that the next time we strike a match in similar conditions, it will be followed by a lighting?